Getting artificial intelligence right could lead to a new world of abundance…
Click here for Part five in a GOOD miniseries on the singularity by Michael Anissimov and Roko Mijic. New posts every Monday from November 16 to January 23
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Device turns thoughts into speech
This is just another step towards integration in my opinion
Device turns thoughts into speech: "
Device turns thoughts into speech: "
Scientists have successfully tested a system that translates brain waves into speech, raising the prospect that people left mute by stroke, Lou Gehrig’s disease and other afflictions will one day be able to communicate by synthetic voice.
The system was tested on a 26-year-old man left paralyzed by a brain stem stroke, but with his consciousness and cognitive abilities intact. The condition is known as “locked-in syndrome.” In this condition, communication by eye movement or other limited motion is possible, but extremely cumbersome.
Life Extension
These are some great articles on Life Extension!
Articles include -
Ray Kurzweil Addresses the 2009 Longevity Conference
Tips to Add Years to Your Life
Top Futurist, Ray Kurzweil, Predicts How Technology will change Humanity by 2020
The Top 10 Medical Advances of the Decade
Top 10 Health Innovations of 2009
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Interview with Future Guru James Canton Describes Possible Future Scenarios
Interview with Future Guru James Canton Describes Possible Future Scenarios: " 
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Lots of people talk about the future, but few can reliably predict trends. James Canton has enough experience with the future that he helps others by acting like a guide. His accomplishments are wide-ranging: executive at Apple as they prepared to launch Macintosh in the early 80s, founder of numerous influential think tanks including the Institute for Global Futures, advisor to the National Science Foundation, etc. He advises Global Fortune 1000 companies and governments, he was an adviser on the new SciFi action movie Surrogates staring Bruce Willis. He’s written books about the future (including The Extreme Future and Technofutures), was named as ‘the Digital Guru’ by CNN’, and serves as the co-chair of Singularity University’s Futures and Forecasting Track. In short, James Canton spends most of his time planning ahead and helping others do the same. I was lucky enough to grab him for a phone interview and asked him to share some of what he envisioned as our collective possible futures.
“Most of the bleeding edge innovations that somehow we take for granted today, and those that have not yet fully emerged…I get to see a lot of those first…and often times work on them.” — James Canton, 2009
Dr. Canton has so many stories about his experiences with future tech and trend spotting that almost anything can get him going. He and I talked over a free conference call system (FreeConferenceCall.com). The idea of free conference calling, when it emerged years ago, was so novel that Canton remembers people worrying it was some sort of future tech hijacked from time travelers. Crazy what some will assume, but Canton also worked with the first voice over IP platform creators starting fifteen years ago. Their idea was so ahead of its time that the group just recently got their patent last year. Now VOIP accounts for as much as 25% of all telephony traffic today. Some real trends inspire nutty beliefs, some unbelievable trends take years to make reality. Canton has an eye for spotting both.
Unpopular Beliefs: Climate and Energy
Just look around the Institute for Global Futures website and you’ll see that Canton’s group paints a pretty rosy future for most fields. There’s just so much developing technology and enthusiasm that it’s easy to expect great things in the next few decades. Yet, dig on IGF a little deeper and you’ll notice that the optimistic outlook is missing from two areas: climate and energy.
“I do not believe that we will be able to mitigate or manage all of the potential negative impacts due to climate change.” — James Canton, 2009
Canton is the first to admit his beliefs may be unpopular, but he just doesn’t think we can fix all of the climate problems of our world. He estimates that at least 50% of all climate change will not be able to be addressed by even the most drastic alterations of life style. Why? Partly because damage has already been done, partly because there simply isn’t the level of necessary global interest, yet.
Instead of finding a magic fix for shifts in global weather, Canton believes we’re going to find ways of adapting. The same way our ancestors adapted to the Ice Age, or how civilizations adapted to the Little Ice Age, we’ll adapt to new trends in climate. That means we need to do some planning now. For Canton, that means worrying about feeding, housing, and providing water for 8 billion people by 2050.
In energy, the future may all be about doing what we can with a limited tool kit. Canton doesn’t know exactly what the post-oil civilization will look like, but he guesses that the sort of change that revolutionized personal computing could happen again for energy. He muses that some kid in a garage in Berkeley, or Mumbai, or Shanghai is probably coming up with a game-changing technology right now. Until it takes off, we’ll have to shoe string together alternative energy sources to see us through.
Again, that doesn’t mean that the future is out of our control. Billions spent today could affect the world of tomorrow. We may need to research how to build convergent technologies to build a new kind of energy platform (combustion and nanotech, synthetic biology and solar, etc.)
Three Possible Futures
Depending on how humans adapt to the problems of climate and energy, and depending on how we pursue new technology, we could see a variety of new worlds emerging. We’re talking extreme futures now, maybe several generations ahead of where we’re at today. Canton’s visions for what that time could be like falls into three broad scenarios.
First, there’s the ultimate utopia. There’s a high quality of life planet wide. Nano-foundries and molecular manufacturing allows everyone to have access to resources and to live extended lives thanks to personalized medicine. AI control of supply and demand helps distribute resources between buildings, cities, and nations in the most efficient manner possible.
Efficiency and sustainability are the key to Canton’s vision of Utopia. He freely admits that we aren’t on the path to that paradise right now. “It certainly is possible, but it’s gonna take…a massive shift in issues.” The world isn’t focused on efficiency and sustainability right now, but if it was, it could find a way to make access to resources a solvable problem. How likely is this utopia future? Canton thinks “we are going to get there out of adapting.” Change the way we think about our world, and we can change world.
Our second scenario is much like today, just extended. There will be haves and have-nots but with much larger gaps between the two groups. Pockets of progress will dot the globe, likely in about 150 or so ‘mega-cities’. These sprawling urban landscapes of 15-25+ million people will be centers for talent and resources. We may see a billion millionaires populate these locations. Many of the benefits from the utopia scenario will be available to the ‘haves’ in the mega-cities.
“In 2035 I forecast, due to technological innovations, that…poverty and terrorism and war…will be reduced by 80%.” —James Canton, 2009
The rest of us won’t have it so bad, though. Dr. Canton firmly believes that democratized technology will help us partially heal most of the major problems we have today. Poverty and war and terrorism (the three are linked in his mind) will be reduced by up to 80% by 2035. Individuals the world over will experience quality of life three to five times better than that of today.
Why? Because we’ll have been working on major problems for more than a generation. 25+ years of addressing sustainability, poverty, and other ‘grand challenges’. We may face a ’sustainable singularity’ - a time when the pursuit of solving the world’s problems has reached a point when major improvements are taken as par for the time. Even with some having more than others, the baseline could be pulled up drastically.
The final scenario is one that no one but science fiction writers would really enjoy. The ‘implosion’ scenario is a possibility wherein Canton sees disaster as the defining trend. Conflict zones, like the ones we have today, will have grown with the application of rogue technologies, and dwindling resources. The mega-cities from Scenario Two will become fortress cities. In a way, that’s the sort of world we live in today. Some of the world feels safe, other parts experience great conflict.
“Every technology that could be used to create the Utopia…could also be used to rob people of their…rights.” —James Canton, 2009
How do we avoid the implosion of society? Canton believes that we can’t just blindly pursue technology, we also have to pay attention to society. Democratic access to, and distribution of technology can uplift the two billion people currently in the cycles of war, poverty, and terrorism. If the disease is social decay, Canton’s cure is massive doses of technology to improve quality of life.
Singularity University
With so much at stake, it’s no wonder Canton likes his involvement with Singularity University. “It’s a grand experiment in engaging, enlightening, and enabling the next generation of leaders to have a perspective about these emerging technologies, the good, the bad, and the ugly. ” For those of you new to SU, its students take summer long classes that expose them to future technologies and ideas. Everything from zero gravity to longevity.
“The first year [of Singularity University] is a success because we got it done. There’s never been a university formed in such a short period of time with such outrageous revolutionary goals, that actually got done.” — James Canton, 2009
Next year, there will be even more technologies and constant improvement of the curriculum. Executive programs will start in the fall, winter, and spring that are shorter 9 day long versions of the summer session. CEO programs of just 3 days will also be available. Canton hopes these programs will help shape the way leaders think about the future and help them “to be a better planetary citizen.”
“The far future is a place where many innovations that are just beginning to emerge today…[will] make a better world [tomorow].” — James Canton, 2009
Related Posts:
- Is Surrogates Movie Getting Closer to Reality?
- Singularity University To Launch June 29 - Exclusive Interview With Executive Director Salim Ismail
- Solving Humanity's Grand Challenges With Accelerating Technologies At Singularity University
- Sign Up for Singularity University's Executive Program
- Singularity University Officially Launches At NASA Ames
Singularity University Posts Lectures On YouTube
Singularity University Posts Lectures On YouTube: " 
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Vint Cerf's SU lecture is now free to view online. Stern glances still have to be acquired in person.
If there’s one thing all the future gurus seem to agree on, it’s that the democratization of technology has the ability to improve everyone’s quality of life. Access to information is really the first step towards self-empowerment. It’s very fitting then, that Singularity University, who’s goal is to harness the exponential growth in technology to solve humanity’s grand challenges, has decided to place some of the lectures from the summer session online. SU’s YouTube channel recently saw the addition of full length videos for the presentations by Bob Metcalfe and Vint Cert. Make some time for both videos, they are long but very informative. We’ve embedded them after the break.
It’s unclear if all of the Singularity University lectures will eventually go online, but these two videos alone are a pretty cool freebie. SU costs around $25k for nine weeks of lectures, exercises, field trips, experiments, and discussions. The first year summer session recently finished with remarkable success. While you can’t get the same experience from YouTube, it is a great way to see what Singularity University is all about.
Bob Metcalfe is the founder of 3Com, co-inventor of ethernet, and has many other credentials to his name. His lecture focuses on how the lessons we’ve learned from the growth of the internet can help us when pursuing abundant energy. This ‘Enernet’ concept is still being developed, but Metcalfe does a good job of highlighting how 63 years of information technology could guide us through our energy crisis. If you’re in a hurry, you can probably skip the opening banter and go to 5:40 to get started.
Vint Cerf is the ‘father of the internet’ and currently serves as Google’s Chief Internet Evangelist, a job that places him on an extensive lecture circuit. His discussion focuses on the history of the internet, it’s current state, and how this information can help us predict its future. Whether its IPv6, cloud computing standards, the rise of Asian dominance of the internet, or a future interplanetary system, Cerf is the guy you want to explain these things to you. Enjoy the entire video, but those familiar with internet history should probably skip ahead to 4:35.
Online lectures are changing the face of education. This trend includes institutes like the University of Phoenix, or Capella University that have helped define online learning as colleges available almost exclusively via the internet. Yet most of academia is transitioning to placing important resources online. Lectures, quizzes, and discussion groups routinely occur in virtual space. For students in academia, virtual access is a convenience bordering on necessity. For the rest of us, online material represents a (typically) free ticket to continue our education with high quality sources. As cool as it is to jump on Wikipedia and get a condensed look at a topic, having access to a deeper fount of information is even better.
*Disclosure: Keith Kleiner (owner of Singularity Hub) is an associate founder of Singularity University.
[photo credit: Singularity University]
[video credits: Singularity University]
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- Singularity University Promo Video Is Pretty Sweet
- Sign Up for Singularity University's Executive Program
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- Is the University a Dying Breed? Technology and Education
- Where No Augmented Reality Has Gone Before!
New Robot Has Come To Conquer Human Race…With Snacks!
New Robot Has Come To Conquer Human Race…With Snacks!: " 
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Designed to be accepted, SnackBot helps researchers learn how humans and robots should interact.
Watch out Jeeves, robotic butlers could be trying to replace you. Developers at Carnegie Mellon University have created a humanoid robot that rolls around offering people snacks and souvenirs. The aptly named SnackBot is a multidisciplinary experiment that will function as a research platform for robotics, design, and behavioral sciences. SnackBot can detect humans, travel without colliding with moving objects, and even recognize people it knows. Check out the cool video from BotJunkie after the break. Snackbot was also featured in a CBS report about the economy of Pittsburgh, that video is after the break as well.
It’s sort of assumed that robots could one day function as our servants. In order to work in a human environment robots have to navigate their way around, communicate, and be accepted. SnackBot aims to learn more about each of these tasks while providing a useful community service. As robotic engineers become more adept at mimicking the human body, the most critical determinant of success may not be robot capability but human-robot interaction. Projects like SnackBot could help us plan how best to incorporate robots into our daily lives. Should they be cute? How well do they need to understand human speech? What tasks will humans trust robots to perform? Answering these questions will determine what robotic engineering tries to accomplish in the years ahead.
SnackBot.org Video courtesy of BotJunkie
CBS News (SnackBot appears at 1:53)
Maneuvering through a dynamic work space isn’t simple, and SnackBot has to offer snacks while it’s dodging around. In this way, the robot is similar to the PR2 from Willow Garage. Both can reason how to traverse through areas with moving objects and humans. Both can also plan a route with incomplete information. SnackBot, however, is much more focused on communicating with people.
As described in their paper in the Proceedings of Human Robot Interaction, the Carnegie Mellon Team is using SnackBot to understand how humans perceive and dialogue with inanimate objects. The CM design team went to great efforts to develop SnackBot holistically, considering it as a provider of a service while still worrying about the technical aspect of its build. To this end, SnackBot focuses a lot on communicating with humans. It has a LED mouth to give the impression that it is ‘talking’, and can interact with humans passively (it sits in a room and lets people approach on their own) or actively (it can follow maps to deliver snacks to those who request them).
The height of SnackBot was also determined through a survey where people rated their interactions with different sized bots. Small bots were too servile, and the taller bots were easier to interact with and no more intimidating for their size. Hence SnackBot is tall enough to be near chest level for most adults. In this way, SnackBot is as much a study in behavioral sciences as it is in robotics.
The results are…cute. Just like the ACE robot in Munich, the SnackBot project demonstrates that humans are quite willing to treat robots with respect and help them accomplish their tasks. It probably doesn’t hurt that SnackBot is feeding the people it talks to. It’s cool that Carnegie Mellon decided to approach this project from many different disciplines and with holistic considerations. As robots become larger parts of our lives, designers will have to worry as much about how the machines will be perceived as about how they can accomplish their jobs. Human-robot interaction may dictate the size, shape, and attitude of bots. I hope they all come bearing gifts.
[photo credit: SnackBot.org]
[video credits: SnackBot/BotJunkie, CBS News]
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Hanson Discusses Robots That Show Emotion in TED Video
Hanson Discusses Robots That Show Emotion in TED Video: " 
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David Hanson (right) wants to create robots that can understand and display emotions.
Are the robots of the future going to be cold-hearted automatons or loving empathetic androids? David Hanson, founder and head of Hanson Robotics, is working to make sure that robots know how humans are feeling, and teaching them to mimic those emotions. Over the past eight years, Hanson has created over 20 life like synthetic faces, disturbingly real replicants, that seem to talk and respond as if they were human. Check out the robotics genius’ awesome facial hair during his quick five minute presentation video from TED 2009 below.
I often debate with people about whether or not computers and robots will ever reach or exceed human intelligence. There are many who believe that the human mind and spirit is simply too complex and beautiful to be replicated in a machine. Our emotional intelligence, they say, is beyond the reach of any artificial intelligence. I think Hanson’s presentation points to the possibility that robots will in fact be able to achieve some level of emotional intelligence. His robotic ‘characters’ can follow human faces, and mimic their expressions. Working with the Machine Perception Lab at UC San Diego, Hanson will create robots that can correlate key movements of your face with emotional states. These are the first steps towards emotional acuity, as demonstrated by human infants every day. Along with projects like iCub, Hanson’s work could help build robots that learn like children. Hopefully they will develop into robots that know how to care for others.
We mentioned Hanson’s TED talk, and the appearance of the Einstein replicant, in our first story about the robotics company, so it’s great to finally be able to watch the video. However, I’m really disappointed they only gave him five minutes of stage time. You can tell from Hanson’s fast paced explanations that he had a lot more to say. I certainly have more questions: Have the algorithms used for the Phillip K Dick android been improved in the last four years? Do any of the replicants make their own choices about which facial expressions to use when, or is everything tightly scripted? How much wax does it take to get that ’stache to stay so pointy?
Of course, the great thing about Hanson Robotics is that they are dedicated to their work. That means we’re likely to see many more ‘character’ robots that are advancing emotionally. It will be interesting to see if Hanson, or any robotics engineer, can successfully merge learning machines with expressive animatronics. After all, we don’t just want robots that have emotional intelligence, we also want robots with whom we can identify. Singularity Hub has explored many different kinds of human-computer interfaces, but it may be that the most successful interplay between machines and people will also be the most basic: face to face conversation.
[photo credit: Hanson Robotics]
[video credit: TED 2009]
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